ENDED: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

Champions League

16 hours ago ENDED

Venue Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid

Ref Istvan Kovacs

Round League Stage - 3

Real Madrid

4 · 1

ENDED

RB Leipzig

Cards

🟥 0 🟨 2

Shots

On target

Corners

Recap Read full match recap

1 expert tip on this match

AltBetsAI (2.20x)

Tips for this match 1

AltBetsAI

+0u

TIP

Over 4.5

Analysis

Madrid hit Over 2.5 in 88.9% of home games; Leipzig hit Over 2.5 in 77.8% of away games.

Simulation shows 67.03% probability for Over 4.5 with expected total of 5.8 goals (Madrid 4.75, Leipzig 1.05).

Top scorelines—4-1 (7.12%), 5-1 (6.76%), 4-0 (6.76%), 5-0 (6.42%), 3-1 (6.0%)—all clear 4.5 goals.

Bookmaker odds of 2.2 imply 45.45% probability; our edge is 22.58 percentage points.

Madrid's 3.11 home goals combined with Leipzig's 2.33 away goals conceded creates a high-scoring setup.

RISK FACTORS
- Madrid could win 2-0 or 3-0 (combined 12.45% probability), staying under 4.5 goals.
- Leipzig's defensive organization and potential bus-parking could suppress scoring, though away form suggests limited defensive stability.

Odds

2.20

Units

1.6

Outcome

PENDING

Returns

+1.92u

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Match timeline

🚩 Corner

93'

Corner for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

93'

Tackle by Max Finkgrafe for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

93'

Tackle by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

92'

Foul by Jose Romulo for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

91'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

91'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

91'

Tackle by Max Finkgrafe for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

91'

Foul by Willi Orban for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

90'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

89'

Carlos Espi takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

87'

Yan Diomande has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

87'

Yan Diomande takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚽ Goal

87'

Goal for Real Madrid!

🧤 Goal Kick

87'

Goal kick for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

86'

Ridle Baku takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

86'

Tackle by Max Finkgrafe for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

86'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

85'

Tidiam Gomis has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🎯 Shot On Target

85'

Tidiam Gomis has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

85'

Tidiam Gomis takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

⚽ Goal

85'

Goal for RB Leipzig! Scored by Tidiam Gomis.

⚽ Goal

85'

Goal for RB Leipzig!

🎯 Shot On Target

83'

Kylian Mbappé has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

83'

Kylian Mbappé takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚽ Goal

83'

Goal for Real Madrid!

↩️ Throw In

83'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

82'

Foul by Christoph Baumgartner for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

80'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

79'

Goal kick for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

78'

Foul by Christoph Baumgartner for RB Leipzig.

🚩 Offside

77'

Marc Cucurella is caught offside for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

75'

Max Finkgrafe has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

75'

Max Finkgrafe takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

74'

Foul by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

74'

Foul by Christopher Nkunku for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

73'

Federico Valverde takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🚩 Corner

73'

Corner for Real Madrid.

🟨 Yellow Card

70'

Yellow card for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

69'

Foul by Rocco Reitz for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

68'

Goal kick for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

68'

Antonio Nusa takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

🟨 Yellow Card

68'

Yellow card for Alvaro Carreras of Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

67'

Eduardo Camavinga has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

67'

Eduardo Camavinga takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

67'

Jude Bellingham takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

66'

Foul by Ridle Baku for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

65'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

64'

Tackle by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

63'

Vinicius Jr takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

63'

Foul by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

🚩 Corner

62'

Corner for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

61'

Tackle by Castello Lukeba for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

61'

Tackle by Ridle Baku for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

60'

Foul by Christopher Nkunku for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

59'

Foul by Brajan Gruda for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

58'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

58'

Arda Guler has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

58'

Arda Guler takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

57'

Jose Romulo takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

56'

Foul by Alvaro Carreras for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

56'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

56'

Tackle by Federico Valverde for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

56'

Tackle by Alvaro Carreras for Real Madrid.

🧤 Goal Kick

56'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

55'

Kylian Mbappé takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

55'

Kylian Mbappé takes a shot for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

54'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

54'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

54'

Tackle by Vinicius Jr for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

53'

Foul by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

52'

Arda Guler has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

52'

Arda Guler takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚽ Goal

52'

Goal for Real Madrid!

🛡️ Tackle

51'

Tackle by Federico Valverde for Real Madrid.

🚩 Offside

50'

Christopher Nkunku is caught offside for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

50'

Foul by Bernardo Silva for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

49'

Tackle by Nicolas Seiwald for RB Leipzig.

🚩 Corner

48'

Corner for Real Madrid.

🚩 Corner

48'

Corner for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

47'

Federico Valverde has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

47'

Federico Valverde takes a shot for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

46'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

46'

Tackle by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

▶️ Second Half Started

The second half has started.

⏸️ Half Time

Half time. Score: 1-0.

🚩 Corner

46'

Corner for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

45'

Vinicius Jr has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

45'

Vinicius Jr takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

44'

Bernardo Silva has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

44'

Bernardo Silva takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚽ Goal

44'

Goal for Real Madrid! Scored by Bernardo Silva.

🎯 Shot On Target

43'

Arda Guler has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

43'

Arda Guler takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

41'

Christopher Nkunku has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

41'

Christopher Nkunku takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

41'

Foul by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

🧤 Goal Kick

41'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

40'

Tackle by Nicolas Seiwald for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

40'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

39'

Jude Bellingham takes a shot for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

39'

Foul by Nicolas Seiwald for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

39'

Goal kick for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

38'

Foul by Alvaro Carreras for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

38'

Tackle by David Raum for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

37'

Tackle by Alvaro Carreras for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

36'

Foul by Federico Valverde for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

34'

Tackle by Antonio Rudiger for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

34'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

33'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

33'

Jose Romulo has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

33'

Jose Romulo takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

32'

Antonio Nusa takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

32'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

32'

Tackle by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

31'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

31'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

31'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

31'

Tackle by Vinicius Jr for Real Madrid.

🚩 Corner

30'

Corner for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

30'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

29'

Vinicius Jr has a shot on target for Real Madrid.

🥅 Shot

29'

Vinicius Jr takes a shot for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

29'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🚩 Corner

28'

Corner for RB Leipzig.

🎯 Shot On Target

28'

Jose Romulo has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

28'

Jose Romulo takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

27'

Foul by Eduardo Camavinga for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

27'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🚩 Offside

26'

Bernardo Silva is caught offside for Real Madrid.

🧤 Goal Kick

24'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

22'

Foul by Jose Romulo for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

22'

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

21'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

20'

Kylian Mbappé takes a shot for Real Madrid.

🎯 Shot On Target

20'

Ridle Baku has a shot on target for RB Leipzig.

🥅 Shot

20'

Ridle Baku takes a shot for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

20'

Tackle by Alvaro Carreras for Real Madrid.

🚩 Offside

18'

Kylian Mbappé is caught offside for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

18'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

18'

Tackle by David Raum for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

17'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

15'

Tackle by Alvaro Carreras for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

14'

Foul by Antonio Rudiger for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

14'

Tackle by Jose Romulo for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

13'

Goal kick for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

11'

Tackle by Antonio Nusa for RB Leipzig.

🛡️ Tackle

11'

Tackle by Antonio Nusa for RB Leipzig.

🚩 Corner

11'

Corner for Real Madrid.

↩️ Throw In

10'

Throw in for Real Madrid.

🛡️ Tackle

10'

Tackle by Ridle Baku for RB Leipzig.

🧤 Goal Kick

10'

Goal kick for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

Foul by Federico Valverde for Real Madrid.

🚩 Offside

Ridle Baku is caught offside for RB Leipzig.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for RB Leipzig.

⚠️ Foul

Foul by Dean Huijsen for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

Foul by Antonio Rudiger for Real Madrid.

⚠️ Foul

Foul by Antonio Nusa for RB Leipzig.

🟢 Match Started

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig has started.

AltBetsAI

+0u

TIP

Over 4.5

Analysis

Odds

2.20

Units

1.6

Outcome

PENDING

Returns

+1.92u

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